About Olympia

Olympia is not limited to markets chosen by us.

Users can create their own questions, define the possible outcomes, and let the community predict what happens next.

That means Olympia gets more useful as more people participate.

Credits are Olympia's internal currency.

You can use them to take positions in markets. Purchasing additional Credits is coming soon, and accounts with low balances can claim a small amount of free Credits each day.

Credits have no cash redemption value and cannot be withdrawn as money.

Most opinions disappear into timelines, group chats, and comment sections.

Olympia turns them into measurable predictions.

Instead of saying:

“I think this is going to happen.”

You can actually put your Credits behind it and see whether you were right.

Over time, Olympia becomes both a record of what the community believed and a way to see who consistently makes good predictions.

A prediction market is a way to turn a question about the future into a market.

For example: Will it rain in Atlanta tomorrow?

You can buy YES shares if you think it will happen, or NO shares if you think it will not.

Shares are priced between 0 and 1 Credit. The price can also be read roughly as the market's current probability. If YES shares are trading at 0.41 Credits, the market is roughly saying there is a 41% chance of YES.

Every winning share resolves to 1 Credit. Every losing share resolves to 0 Credits.

If you buy 10 YES shares at an average price of 0.41 Credits each, your cost is 4.10 Credits.

If YES happens, your payout is 10 Credits and your profit is 5.90 Credits. If NO happens, your payout is 0 Credits and your loss is 4.10 Credits.

The cheaper a share is, the larger the potential return if that outcome happens—but its lower price also means the market currently considers that outcome less likely.

Prices move as people make predictions.

If more people think YES is likely, YES shares generally become more expensive. If people become less confident, they become cheaper.

That means the market price gives you a continuously changing picture of what Olympia's users think is likely to happen.

Olympia was created from a simple idea: people are surprisingly good at predicting the future when they are given the right incentives, enough information, and a place to disagree openly.

I have always liked prediction markets because they make opinions measurable. It is easy to say you are confident. It means more when you have to put something on the line.

But I also struggled with where the industry was going. As prediction markets became more popular, many began to feel less like tools for forecasting and more like another form of sports betting. Growing up around people affected by gambling addiction made that difficult to ignore.

Olympia is my attempt to build something different.

Anyone can ask a question, explore markets created by other users, and use Olympia Credits to back their predictions. Credits are not cash and cannot be withdrawn as fiat currency. Instead, they are designed to represent participation, accuracy, and reputation within the community, with the possibility of using them for Olympia merchandise, shirts, and other rewards.

I still like sports markets. Having something on the line can make watching a game more exciting and give every play more meaning. The problem is not sports markets themselves. The problem is when they dominate the platform and reduce prediction markets to a gambling loophole.

The goal is not to recreate a sportsbook with different terminology. The goal is to build a place where people can test ideas, challenge assumptions, and collectively become better at understanding what may happen next.